{"items":[{"触发因素":"原油/Brent/WTI上涨","方向":"多数化工偏多","主要影响品种":"TA, V, L, PP, MA, SR","传导路径":"原油 → 石脑油/PX/乙烯/丙烯/LPG → PTA/PVC/PE/PP成本；原油也通过乙醇比价影响白糖","优先级":"高","关键词":"oil, crude, brent, wti, opec, refinery, naphtha, gasoline, diesel"},{"触发因素":"霍尔木兹/红海/中东运输风险","方向":"能源化工偏多，航运扰动","主要影响品种":"TA, V, L, PP, MA, SR, SP","传导路径":"地缘风险 → 原油/LPG/化工船货/运费 → 化工成本与进口到港节奏","优先级":"高","关键词":"Hormuz, Red Sea, tanker, missile, sanctions, blockade, shipping"},{"触发因素":"天然气/LNG上涨或供应紧张","方向":"甲醇、化工成本偏多","主要影响品种":"MA, PP, L, V, TA","传导路径":"天然气/LNG → 甲醇、乙烷/丙烷化工原料与电力成本 → 化工品成本","优先级":"高","关键词":"natural gas, LNG, gas storage, pipeline, Henry Hub"},{"触发因素":"煤炭/电价/安监趋严","方向":"煤化工和黑色偏多","主要影响品种":"JM, MA, V, RB, HC, PP","传导路径":"煤炭/电价/安监 → 焦煤供应、电石/PVC、煤制甲醇/烯烃成本 → 黑色化工联动","优先级":"高","关键词":"coal, coking coal, mine safety, power curbs, electricity, calcium carbide"},{"触发因素":"铁水产量上升/钢厂复产","方向":"炉料偏多，成材视需求","主要影响品种":"JM, RB, HC","传导路径":"钢厂复产 → 焦煤/焦炭/铁矿需求 → 成材产量与库存变化","优先级":"高","关键词":"blast furnace, hot metal, steel mill, rebar, HRC"},{"触发因素":"地产/基建政策改善","方向":"建材黑色、PVC偏多","主要影响品种":"RB, HC, V","传导路径":"地产/基建 → 钢材、水泥玻璃、PVC管材型材需求 → 黑色与PVC需求改善","优先级":"高","关键词":"property, construction, infrastructure, housing, stimulus"},{"触发因素":"南美大豆/玉米天气异常","方向":"油粕谷物偏多或波动放大","主要影响品种":"M, A, RM, C","传导路径":"巴西/阿根廷天气 → 大豆/玉米产量出口 → 中国到港与油厂压榨 → 豆粕菜粕玉米联动","优先级":"高","关键词":"Brazil soybean, Argentina soybean, drought, flood, corn, crop"},{"触发因素":"美国作物带天气/USDA报告","方向":"农产品波动放大","主要影响品种":"C, M, A, CF, SR","传导路径":"USDA/WASDE/出口销售/天气 → 全球供需预期 → 国内进口成本与情绪","优先级":"高","关键词":"USDA, WASDE, crop progress, export sales, planting, acreage, yield"},{"触发因素":"水产/生猪饲料需求改善","方向":"蛋白粕和玉米偏多","主要影响品种":"M, RM, C","传导路径":"养殖利润/存栏/水产旺季 → 饲料消费 → 豆粕/菜粕/玉米需求","优先级":"中","关键词":"hog, pig, poultry, aquaculture, feed demand"},{"触发因素":"巴西/印度/泰国糖供应变化","方向":"白糖偏多/偏空","主要影响品种":"SR","传导路径":"甘蔗天气/压榨/出口政策 → ICE原糖 → 国内进口利润和郑糖","优先级":"高","关键词":"sugar, Brazil, India, Thailand, cane, ethanol, UNICA"},{"触发因素":"纺织服装订单改善","方向":"棉花/PTA偏多","主要影响品种":"CF, TA","传导路径":"服装/家纺出口和内需 → 纱线、聚酯开工 → 棉花和PTA需求","优先级":"中","关键词":"textile, apparel, garment, yarn, polyester, export orders"},{"触发因素":"纸厂补库/海外浆厂检修","方向":"纸浆偏多","主要影响品种":"SP","传导路径":"浆厂检修/罢工/港口 → 进口浆供应；纸厂利润/开工 → 纸浆需求","优先级":"中","关键词":"pulp, paper, Suzano, Arauco, CMPC, port, strike, shipment"},{"触发因素":"人民币贬值/美元走强","方向":"进口依赖品种成本上升","主要影响品种":"SP, M, RM, C, CF, SR, L, PP, MA","传导路径":"汇率变化 → 进口成本/贸易利润 → 国内期货价格与基差","优先级":"中","关键词":"dollar, yuan, renminbi, FX, exchange rate"},{"触发因素":"海运费上涨/港口拥堵","方向":"进口成本和到港扰动","主要影响品种":"SP, M, RM, C, L, PP, MA, TA","传导路径":"运费/港口/船期 → 进口成本和到港节奏 → 港口库存与基差","优先级":"中","关键词":"freight, shipping, port congestion, vessel, shipment"}]}